USDA Sees Less Red Meat, More Chicken

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Chicken grill at a family garden party in the summer.

USDA reduced its forecasts for red meat and poultry production as lower forecast beef, pork, and turkey production more than offset higher broiler production.

In its monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA explained the decline in 2019 beef production largely reflects lower steer and heifer slaughter in the second half of the year. For 2020, production growth is expected to be slower as producers respond to higher feed costs. The beef production forecast is reduced on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter as incentives to add weight on pasture slows the pace of feedlot placements.

The beef import forecast is raised for 2019 on recent trade data, but the export forecast is reduced from the previous month on the current pace of beef exports to a number of trading partners. No change is made to the 2020 beef trade forecasts.

USDA also lowered it cattle price forecasts for both 2019 and 2020.


Forecast pork production is lowered from last month primarily as the pace of slaughter to date has been slower than expected.

Pork export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are raised from the previous month, largely reflecting the removal of Mexico’s tariffs on U.S. pork products in late May.

USDA lowered its hog price forecasts for 2019, but the 2020 hog price forecast remains unchanged as slower production growth and stronger exports are expected to support prices.


The broiler production forecast is raised on recent hatchery data and expected heavier bird weights. Turkey production is lowered slightly on production data to date.

The 2019 broiler export forecast is reduced slightly on recent trade data; no change is made to the 2020 broiler export forecast. The turkey export forecast is unchanged for 2019 and 2020.

Broiler prices forecasts were reduced for both 2019 and 2020, while turkey price forecasts were raised slightly for 2019 on higher second-quarter priced and remained unchanged for 2020.

Source:, 6-12-19

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