USDA Projections into 2016 Signal More Normal Markets

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Total U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2016 is projected to be above that of 2015, as pork and poultry production is expected to further recover from disease outbreaks and increases in cattle placements support greater beef production, according to the USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released Tuesday. The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2015 is raised from last month on higher beef, pork and broiler production.

Beef production is forecast higher as gains in the 2014 and 2015 calf crops support year-over-year increases in cattle placements in late 2015 and early 2016, and projected 2016 beef production at 24.5 billion pounds.

Marketings of fed cattle are forecast to increase during 2016, while carcass weights are expected to reflect incentives to keep cattle weights high. Beef production forecasts for the full year 2015 are up from the April report, to 24.274 billion pounds from 24.210 billion pounds.

Pork production is expected to increase as pig crops expand; reflecting moderate increases in farrowings during late 2015 and early 2016 and a continued recovery in growth in pigs per litter.

Pork production in 2015 is forecast higher as well, as the pace of slaughter in the second quarter remains heavy and supplies of slaughter hogs in the second part of the year are expected to remain ample.

Pork production in 2016 is expected to be more than 24.7 billion pounds, up from projected total production in 2015 of 24.4 billion pounds.

Broiler and turkey production are forecast higher as the more rapid expansion in production which began in late 2014 continues. For 2016, broiler and turkey production together is expected to top 47.7 billion pounds, up from 46.6 billion pounds projected for 2015 and 44.8 billion pounds in 2014.

For the rest of 2015, broiler production is raised from last month — to 40.1 billion pounds from 40.0 billion pounds expected last month — as producers continue to expand egg sets and chicks placed. Turkey production is lowered from last month as previously forecast production growth is expected to be limited.

Exports, imports
For 2015, export forecasts for beef, pork and broiler meat are raised from last month on March export data and larger production forecasts, to 14.9 billion pounds from 14.7 billion pounds. Beef imports are forecast higher on strong processing-grade beef demand and tight supplies of domestic processing beef, now coming in at 3.1 billion pounds of imported beef in 2015, up from 2.9 billion pounds projected last month.

Red meat and poultry exports are expected to increase in 2016 with expanding production. Imports of beef and pork are expected to continue to decline.; 5-12-2015

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