To the advantage of the pork industry in the next several years, not only will pork exports stay strong, but also U.S. domestic per capita consumption is poised to recover as the pork industry expands production.
Pork expansion will be ignited by strong profits, which began in the spring of 2011, and by moderating feed prices. A third supporting force will be the very low levels of beef available into 2015.
Feed price moderation depends on a return to normal yields in the United States for 2012 crops. For that reason, the pork industry should still view 2012 as a transition year for feed prices.
Limited competition from beef in the meat case is locked-in for several years. The current small beef cow numbers means small calf crops for several years, and heifers retained as expansion begins. This means small beef supplies until at least 2015.
The pork industry is well positioned to quickly take advantage of this uptick in market opportunity that is beginning to present itself. In the next several years, the pork industry will benefit from strong growth in foreign per capita consumption and from some expansion in domestic per capita consumption as well.
Source: Meatingplace.com, 3.5.12